A red pencil is a modest instrument. It does not break a lock, seize a ministry, or silence a dissident. It merely travels across a page and leaves a mark where the arithmetic has failed.
This week, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean put such a mark beside Cuba.
Its new forecast sees the Cuban economy shrinking 10.3 percent in 2026 and another 5.1 percent in 2027. The number is not merely the worst projection in Latin America and the Caribbean. It is so far below the regional field that Cuba has become a statistical problem for its neighbors: CEPAL expects Central America to grow 1.6 percent this year, but 4 percent if Cuba and Haiti are removed from the calculation. Cuba is no longer merely failing to keep pace. It is pulling downward on the line around it. (CEPAL, https://www.cepal.org/es/comunicados/la-senda-crecimiento-que-enfrenta-la-region-la-cepal-llama-impulsar-la-formalizacion; CubaNet, https://s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/qurium/cubanet.org/cuba-sufrira-la-mayor-contraccion-economica-de-la-region-en-2026-y-2027-preve-la-cepal.html; 14ymedio, https
Natalia Suyos writes for Cuba Journal on Business.
